TV revenues may have been showing signs of recovery at the start of 2024, but new research from WARC suggests linear TV gains will ultimately be dwarfed by social media over the next year. Meta alone is forecast to overtake all global linear TV ad revenues in 2025, as Facebook and Instagram continue to dominate the advertising landscape.
The analysis deemed social media the world’s largest channel in terms of ad investment, which is expected to climb 14.3 percent YoY in 2024, for a total $247.3 billion. Meta is predicted to take 63 percent of that total, generating $155.6 billion in ad revenues this year.
The uptick in social spend is partly due to the sheer usage levels that social media platforms still attract; GWI data shows that time spent with social platforms has increased by 50 percent since 2014, from average daily consumption of 95 minutes to 152 minutes in 2024.
But there are signs of user growth slowing down, particularly on Facebook, suggesting there are other drivers behind the acceleration of ad investment in Meta. For instance, the social media giant has reported a wave of spending from Chinese advertisers, which now account for 10 percent of its annual revenues. Meanwhile Meta’s AI tools (such as its automated planning solution Advantage+) have reportedly attracted more ad spend.
The company is therefore increasing its AI investment, with Mark Zuckerberg pledging to make Meta “the leading AI company in the world,” and sending its shares tumbling almost 12 percent in the process. But it’s not just shareholders unhappy with Meta’s AI direction; last month the company received a number of complaints over performance issues on its automated ad platform, with buyers noticing the cost of running campaigns soaring while sales were down.
Clocking up
While Meta will continue to take the lion’s share of social budgets, other companies are set to grow their ad revenues this year, including Snapchat (+13.7 percent), Pinterest (+17.3 percent) and TikTok (+18.3 percent). WARC noted that TikTok’s growth marks a significant slowdown from the 87.8 percent growth rate it clocked up last year, as the threat of a US ban looms over the Chinese-owned business.
The only major social media company forecast to decline this year is X (formerly Twitter), which faces ongoing brand safety issues stirred up by Elon Musk. However, the relaxed approach to content moderation could have financial benefits in a US election year, with political ad spend helping to shorten X’s losses. The company is headed for a -6.4 percent YoY decline in ad revenues this year, compared with -46.4 percent in 2023.
But X’s push into video continues to blur the lines between these businesses, and the report observes that social media platforms are becoming increasingly homogenous in their products – and therefore their ad offerings. TikTok for instance is introducing a photo sharing app called Notes to rival Instagram, while Meta has launched Threads to steal share from X. This means ad formats are converging between social platforms, while adding more commerce functionality for brands, and offering more advertising opportunities in general; Meta for example has increased its ad load on Instagram, with most Reels sessions now having seven or more ads.
“Much of social media’s success has been driven by Meta’s remarkable renaissance,” said Alex Brownsell, Head of Content at WARC Media. “However, social’s stronghold on budgets can also be seen in TikTok’s rise, and a return to double digit ad revenue growth at Snapchat and Pinterest. However, with this dominance comes challenges, such as rising advertising loads in social environments, and the impact of AI on media planning.”
“AI offers incredible new opportunities for [social advertisers], delivering multi-advertiser contextual ads, but that may not be suitable for all brands – such as those that need to heavily consider exclusivity and adjacency,” added Rachel Morman, Global Head of Social at PHD Global.
