In this week’s Week in Charts, the dangers of AI agents changing live campaigns, the Gulf crisis’ impact on global ad spend, and the risks of being online for UK adults.
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Charts of the Week
Gulf Crisis Threatens Up to $94 Billion in Global Ad Spend Growth
The Gulf crisis could cost up to $94 billion of global ad spend growth over the next two years, according to forecasts from WARC. The research puts forward three scenarios: a baseline projection with relatively modest impact on oil prices and household income; an extended shock scenario resulting in elevated oil prices and partial supply disruption, presenting a greater risk to the advertising and media industry; and a “severe, systemic shock” including prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “The impacts of this severe market shock would carry into 2027, resulting in a further $44.0 billion of lost growth versus our baseline,” according to the forecast.
UK Adults Lose Belief in the Benefits of Being Online in Ofcom Report
Fifty-nine percent of online adults in the UK believe the benefits of being online outweigh the risks, according to research from Ofcom, down from 72 percent last year and 71 percent in 2023. The survey found that women are less likely to feel that the benefits outweigh the risks, with 54 percent agreeing, compared to 64 percent of men. Meanwhile 60 percent of internet users said they had encountered at least one negative experience online over the past year.
More Than Half FAST Viewers in France and Netherlands Do Not Use Subscription AVOD Services
Free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) channels offer advertisers the ability to reach streaming video viewers who do not use any subscription ad-supported streaming (AVOD) services, according to research from Omnicom Media and Showheroes. The study found that the proportion of FAST-only viewers was particularly high in France (56 percent) and the Netherlands (54 percent), but lower in Italy (33 percent) and Spain (27 percent).
US Viewers Fail to Identify Where to Watch Popular Streaming Shows
Despite the popularity of HBO Max show Heated Rivalry, just 11 percent of US consumers could correctly identify the only streaming service where they can watch it, according to a study from Hub Entertainment Research. The survey asked viewers which streaming services they would find a selection of exclusive titles. Netflix’s Squid Game was the most correctly identified with 50 percent accurate responses, followed by HBO Max’s Game of Thrones (40 percent), while more than half of repondents said they don’t know where they would find Severance or Heated Rivalry.
“As the industry faces more consolidation, streamers need to consider how their originals strategy can move beyond seasonal hits and lever up to more brand-defining distinctions that make them stand out from the crowd,” said Jason Platt Zolov, Senior Consultant for Hub. “Being able to clearly own ‘quality, ‘value,’ or a specific genre of content in the eyes of consumers is critical to get them to say yes to a service, especially when they can’t remember where to watch specific shows.”
The Week in Stocks
Agencies
S4 Capital’s share price continues to surge in light of renewed guidance signalling margin gains.
TV
Shares in Roku jumped last week after investors highlighted the revenue potential from the company’s upcoming Home Screen refresh, and the business launched a mobile app version of its paid ad-free streaming service Howdy.
Publishers
Future’s stock price continues to tumble following its latest trading update, which showed that declining traffic from Google search has reduced high-margin programmatic advertising and ecommerce revenues.
Ad Tech
US tech stocks rallied on Monday as investors looked for positive signs for an end to the war in Iran.
Tech
Google stock spiked last week after Wells Fargo backed the company to boost revenue and operating income due to non-cyclical driving factors, particularly its cloud services platform.
