By 2024, everyone working in digital advertising was tired of hearing about cookie deprecation, writes Thomas Bernal, VP Go To Market at Ogury. But how did we get there, what were the factors shaping signal loss, and what does the future hold for tracking and targeting?
Anyone working in digital advertising knows the phrase “signal loss”. It’s a mainstay of panel discussions and conference agendas, and there’s a high chance you’ve said it today. What signal loss refers to is the erosion of data that was once used as a reliable proxy for consumer behaviours, or the consumer themselves, such as the famous — or infamous — third-party cookie.
But what signals have been lost exactly, and why? Whether you’re new to the industry or just need a refresher, here’s a timeline of signal loss in digital advertising, from the moment Apple fired the starting pistol back in 2017 to this year’s predicted low of just 13 percent audience addressability via cookies.
2017: Apple takes on the data privacy mantle
Today, a mix of policies and PR have cemented Apple’s reputation as a data privacy champion. This all began back in 2017, when Apple introduced Intelligent Tracking Prevention (ITP) within the Safari browser on iOS and MacOS. This feature was designed to curb the ability of advertisers to follow users across different websites by effectively blocking third-party cookies and placing strict time limits of first-party cookies, making cross-site tracking far more difficult.
Difficult, but not impossible — at least at first. ITP began by blocking cookies from unknown third-party sources, then later expanded to restrict tracking via local storage and fingerprinting. A pattern emerged where ad tech companies would scramble to find alternative signals that could fly under ITP’s radar, then Apple would clamp down and close common loopholes. This game of cat and mouse between Apple and ad tech has continued ever since.
2018: The rise of the regulators
Public concern over data misuse reached a tipping point in the late 2010s, fuelled by high-profile privacy scandals — such as the Cambridge Analytica exposé — and data leaks. Governments responded with sweeping legislation, notably the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2018, which formed a legal template that other regions have since emulated, such as 2020’s California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) — the first law of its kind passed in the US.
Similar regulations are continuing to roll out around the world to this day. The fine print between each region’s laws differ, but the broad strokes are the same: companies need to be transparent in how they collect and store personal information and for what purpose, providing opt-outs and right to erasure wherever possible.
The user data free-for-all of the early millennium was gone for good, though third-party cookies remained the de facto signal for targeting and tracking despite consent walls shaving down their applicability. Safari — where cookies had been more thoroughly blocked — represented a thin slice of the web traffic pie, so advertisers weren’t in a panic. Until…
2020: Google declares the end of third-party cookies
Google sent the digital advertising world spiralling with its announcement in January 2020 that third-party cookies would be phased out of Chrome within two years. Chrome’s dominant market share meant advertisers couldn’t rest on their laurels. This led to a wave of innovation as ad tech companies raced to create new targeting, tracking, and measurement solutions, hoping to set the new industry standard.
But these attempts were frustrated by indecision on Google’s part. The cookie deprecation deadline kept getting kicked down the road, suppressing adoption of alternatives as advertisers stuck to the path of least resistance. Google’s own suite of replacement solutions — under the Privacy Sandbox umbrella — failed to produce a viable alternative, without which deprecation would have been an own goal to the company’s massive advertising business.
2021: Apple forces in-app advertising to play by its rules
With user privacy on Safari locked down, Apple turned its attention towards apps. Its App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework launched in April 2021, and required iPhone and iPad apps to gain explicit consent from the user to be able to track them across different digital properties, with opt-out being the default setting.
Once users were given the choice, the result was a resounding “No”, with around 75 percent of iOS users opting out. Persuasive prompt language and incentivisation of opt-ins has seen the rate increase slightly over time, but the majority of the ecosystem’s audiences remain unaddressable via typical methods. Instead, in-app advertisers must turn to Apple’s own — strictly controlled — user signals.
2024: Google decides it can’t quit cookies after all
By 2024, everyone working in digital advertising was tired of hearing about cookie deprecation. It seems Google was sick of it too, because in July 2024 it announced that third-party cookies in Chrome were here to stay.
Google had been testing various replacement solutions in Privacy Sandbox, but was struggling to satisfy both advertisers and regulators, with the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) in the UK particularly concerned about the level of control a Google-owned solution might have over the market. Cookies have their flaws, but no one owns the technology, which was invented back in 1994 by Netscape Engineer Lou Montulli as a simple means of “remembering” what users placed in online shopping carts.
Along with the blog post announcing the deprecation kibosh, Google also laid out its plans for a framework that “elevates user choice”, which has been widely interpreted as an ATT-style opt-in mechanism. Further details have yet to emerge.
2025 onwards: Cookie deprecation by a different name
Google may not be deprecating cookies itself, but their days are numbered nonetheless. The difference is, it will be the public that delivers the killing blow. Should Google incorporate the predicted ATT-like mechanism, it’s estimated that only 17 percent of users would opt-in, leaving just 13 percent of open web audiences addressable via cookies once Firefox, Safari, and Edge are added to the mix.
So what does a future without tracking and targeting cookies look like? Right now, ad tech is host to an evolutionary explosion, as various solutions and frameworks compete to provide the most performant and cost-effective results. It’s likely there will never be a replacement as all-encompassing as cookies were, rather a portfolio of solutions assembled on a case-by-case basis.
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