While ad-supported streaming services, consolidation among TV businesses, and lower-funnel metrics in CTV are expected to take on growing importance in 2025, analysts remain divided on the significance of FAST channels and the exact impact of AI on media companies next year. VideoWeek asked five leading industry analysts for their predictions for video, media and advertising in 2025.
Paolo Pescatore, Tech, Media & Telco Analyst, PP Foresight
Free ad-supported streaming TV (FAST) will fall faster by the wayside. FAST is too overhyped by inflated forecasts that looked to reinvent the wheel in a streaming-led future – it might still play a small role in niche markets but that’s it!
Many pay-TV providers (including telcos) will finally start to cease supporting costly platform and hardware in preference for streamers and cheaper managed solutions.
There will be a crashing realisation that AI will not save the broadcast and media industries. Put simply, these industries have been slow to embrace change. They are not driving innovation. Other areas, such as connectivity and AI, are forcing change upon it. The broadcast industry has followed others in replacing the word “smart” with “AI” in its marketing campaigns and stand pitches.
Immersive experiences will take a huge leap of faith. With a broader range of devices underpinned by powerful compute platforms, we will see all providers further experiment to provide unique storytelling. Smart glasses will see greater awareness and adoption to help bridge towards dedicated VR experiences.
We will see diversification in ad budgets as brands follow the flock of eyeballs, largely driven by social channels stepping up with greater AI capabilities to better serve users.
Companies will start to fall like dominoes. Consumers are not spending more, and businesses are scaling back further, leading to an ever shrinking flow of money through the value chain. Cost efficiencies will lead to spin-offs and M&A.
Big Tech’s takeover of media and broadcast is almost complete. The likes of AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft, as well as others, have been steadily increasing their presence and continue to evolve by adding more features/functions to their suite of capabilities. They have played and continue to play a crucial role in transforming legacy platforms into this new software-driven, cloud-based, virtualised world.
Richard Broughton, Executive Director, Ampere Analysis
Consolidation: With broadcast networks facing structural pressure from streaming, and interest rates finally beginning to fall, we would expect to see a number of deals consolidating broadcast properties both within-territory and across-market. MediaForEurope has recently built its war chest for expansion within Europe, US groups like Comcast and WBD are restructuring their businesses to permit easier divestment, and pay groups like Canal+ (soon to be listed on the London Stock Exchange) have already been increasing their stakes in peer group companies around the world. Similarly, a slow commissioning market is a recipe for further consolidation in the TV and film production sector – with investors and producers looking to squeeze further efficiencies out of the challenged content production business.
A degree of scale is necessary in a globalised TV landscape, and consolidation caters to this – whether through a pan-European TV network, a global pay-TV player, or the emergence of new ‘mini-major’ studios through further mergers in the indie production market – supporting groups dealing with declining or flatlining legacy business areas, allowing them to drive efficiency gains to support margins, and buying time to focus on new growth areas.
Simplicity in ad trading: One of the messages coming through loud and clear from the ad industry is that buying inventory on streaming TV platforms – whether broadcaster-led or not – is just not as friction-free as it should be. As a result, there is a perspective that cash is being left for the major global search and social players – just because it’s easier to buy via those platforms, and feedback on campaign performance is more immediate.
So while we’re unlikely to witness a sea-change in streaming ad trading overnight, I’d expect to see services active in the CTV market push closer towards one-click purchasing models, provide better attribution/performance metrics, and complement with increased cross-company collaboration to drive scale and support more effective competition with global search and social rivals.
Maria Rua Aguete, Head of Media & Entertainment, Omdia
AI’s Growing Role: In 2025, artificial intelligence will gain wider acceptance in media as a solution to financial challenges, driving efficiency, personalisation, and innovation across the industry.
Advertising-driven growth in media: The M&E industry is forecast to grow to $1.07 trillion in 2025, with online video taking centre stage, contributing 40.7 percent of revenue. Ad-supported models will expand as cost-conscious consumers embrace affordable or free services.
Cinema’s strong comeback: The cinema sector will see a 12.8 percent revenue increase in 2025, the highest among media segments. High-quality content and enhanced experiences will bring audiences back, showcasing the resilience of traditional entertainment formats amid the dominance of online video and gaming.
Hardware companies eye original content: As consumer demand for exclusive content grows, hardware companies like Samsung, LG and Roku may explore co-production partnerships with established studios to deliver original programming while minimising financial risks.
Alice Enders, Director of Research, Enders Analysis
The big story in 2024 and again in 2025 is competition by Temu and Shein respectively for the online shopper of cheap stuff from China delivered under the small parcels regime (under £135). In 2024, we saw double-digit growth in search and online display, and we expect to see that again in 2025.
By contrast, back in the real economy, the dull profile of real private consumption expenditure is weighing on advertiser engagement with TV, up 1 percent in 2024 and expected to be the same growth in 2025, after a disastrous 9 percent drop in 2023.
Brandon Katz, Senior Entertainment Industry Strategist, Parrot Analytics
In 2025, less expensive ad-supported streaming tiers will take on even greater importance to platforms and subscribers as SVOD price increases will lead to more noticeable customer dissatisfaction. According to Parrot Analytics’ Streaming Economics, churn increased in three regions apiece for global streamers Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+ and Paramount+ from Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, while Max saw churn increase or remain flat in three regions this year.
A rash of price hikes over the last 18 months came from the industry’s shift from subscriber growth to revenue and profit. A careful balance must be struck to maintain customer satisfaction and subscriber growth lest the industry raise prices beyond what consumers are willing to stomach, creating an exodus of cost-conscious subscribers. Contributing factors to low churn and high retention rates across the industry include quality content, library size, UX/UI, flexible pricing options, bundling, strategic promotional campaigns, and helpful customer service.
