In the early days of the streaming wars, the major international streaming services plowed a lot of money into big name, big budget shows as they sought to build their audiences. Unsurprisingly, not all of these shows were successes, and those which failed to build an audience attracted a lot of media attention due to huge amounts of money which had gone in to making them.
As the streaming wars have matured, we’ve started to see content budgets for the major streamers stagnate, or even roll back, as media businesses push for profits from their streaming arms. In this context, data from entertainment insights business Cinelytic shows that streamers’ tactics are changing when it comes to big budget shows, with Amazon in particular taking a more risk-averse approach. Nonetheless the value of these well-funded shows remains mixed. Streaming services have started to learn what works when it comes to attracting eyeballs with these sorts of high profile shows, but they’re still fairly risky from an investment perspective.
Big budget gambles
To judge the value of big-budget shows (specifically, shows with a per-episode budget of more than $10 million, Cinelytic looked at how many views each show picked up in its strongest week, compared to competing shows which aired at the same time. For those shows which were in the top ten most popular, Cinelytic then calculated their market share within the top ten shows during that period – i.e how many views they got, compared with total views across the ten most popular shows during that period.
Over the past 12 months, 28 series with budgets of more than $10 million per episode aired across Apple TV+, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Hulu, Max, Netflix, Paramount+, and Peacock. The majority ranked within the top ten during their release window – though nine didn’t, presumably a disappointing return given the level of investment behind them.
Looking at individual shows, the risky nature of these shows is clear. In some cases, big budgets deliver. Max’s House of the Dragon, the joint fifth-most expensive show released in the last 12 months, delivered the highest top ten market share of all the shows listed, with 22 percent of all top ten views during its release. Hulu’s Shōgun similarly performed well – it was the second most expensive show over the past year, and delivered 14.4 percent of all top ten views.
But there are also notable failures. Four shows on the list sat outside the top 20 during their release period, and perhaps the most unfortunate of these was Peacock’s Those About to Die. The show was Peacock’s only entry in the list, with a per-episode cost of $14 million, and it ranked 62nd during its release.
Max succeeding, Apple struggling
Some streaming services seem to understand what makes big budget shows better than others. Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max seems particularly adept – two of its three big-budget shows were ranked top during their release. There are obviously some key factors which help determine whether heavily-funded shows will be a success or not.
Shows which were continuations of existing, popular series obviously tended to fare better on the list. And for new series, those which were based on a popular IP also generally fared well. Sticking to this formula has served Disney well – none of its four shows featured on the list fell outside of the top ten during their release window.
But there are exceptions to these rules. Amazon’s The Wheel of Time and Mr. and Mrs. Smith are both based on existing IP, and both ranked outside the top ten. Meanwhile Netflix’s The Crown ranked 30th during its release period, despite its previous popularity (perhaps hampered by negative reviews).
Perhaps because of this inherent risk, Cinelytic noted that Amazon has taken a fairly different approach to spending compared with its previous ranking. In Cinelytic’s last ranking, Amazon had two shows with budgets over $10 million per episode, but two of these were the two most expensive shows of the year by a fair margin. The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power cost $58 million per episode, and ranked third during its release, while Citadel cost $50 million per episode, and ranked 16th. Subsequently, Amazon has essentially diversified its spending. Over the past year it has released six shows above $10 million per episode, but none of them have cost more than $19 million per episode. This strategy seems to have paid off, with four of these shows reaching a top five ranking.
However Apple TV+’s approach isn’t too dissimilar, yet Apple’s returns on its biggest budget shows have been significantly worse. Of Apple’s seven most expensive shows, four of them ranked 10th or lower during their release.
Apple’s problem however is that its subscriber base is still small compared to it’s competitors. That of course is partly why it has spent so heavily on content over the past year – but the figures indicate that this strategy isn’t paying off.
